Almost A Met: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Ft. James Schiano)
A free-agent 'unicorn' who might have changed everything.
Hello fellow Mets fans! Welcome back to our regularly scheduled “Almost A Met” newsletter.
I can’t thank those of you enough who took time out of their holiday weekend to answer my survey questions last week. It really means a lot and will help me make this newsletter better for you!
But I’m excited about today.
I chatted with James Schiano, one of the best Mets community members online, about a more recent “what-if” scenario: What if the Mets were able to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
As you’ll read below the Mets went all in for the Japanese phenom, and it’s not hard to imagine what kind of difference he could have made on the 2024 team.
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Let’s get into it.
Andrew
The Mets tried hard to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Remember how disappointing the 2023 Mets were?
Sure, 2022 was fun (until it wasn’t anymore)—but nothing seemed to click for the Mets in 2023. After seeing the writing on the wall they traded away veterans (including SP Justin Verlander and SP Max Scherzer, among others) at the Trade Deadline and finished with a 75-87 record.
Following that, the Mets decided it was time for a change.
They fired Manager Buck Showalter, hired President of Baseball Operations David Sterns, hired their new manager Carlos Mendoza and seemed poised to kick off an offseason that was expected to be pretty tepid as they transitioned into their next window of competition.
Except for one major caveat: Japanese phenom SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
For today’s newsletter I spoke with James Schiano—an amazing Mets community member online who is part of the (very awesome) Mets’d Up podcast and has his own (very helpful) fantasy baseball YouTube channel—about the team’s pursuit of Yamamoto and what could have happened if he was the ace of the 2024 team.
Both James and I couldn’t help but think about how the 2024 season could have been different with Yamamoto leading the pitching staff.
“We already saw it first hand, in the first playoff series that we played against the Dodgers in Yamamoto’s rookie season. If he were to just switch locker rooms, you probably win that series and you actually may have won the World Series,” Schiano told me during a recent phone conversation. “That of course didn’t come to fruition.”
More on that in a bit. Let’s first look at how Yamamoto was Almost A Met.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto was a Mets free agent ‘unicorn’
Despite Scherzer telling the Texas Rangers media after being traded that the Mets planned on a “transitory year,” the team clearly had interest in signing Yamamoto.
And seriously what wasn’t to like? The 25-year-old was dominant in Japan and had ace potential, something the Mets desperately needed. He won three-consecutive Sawamura Awards, the NPB’s equivalent of the Cy Young award, and had ERAs of 1.21, 1.16, 1.68, and 1.39 from his age 22-24 seasons in Japan.
Sterns has a reputation of not wanting to give out long-term contracts to pitchers, which is a philosophy that has (in part) made him one of the more successful front office executives in the game.
But Yamamoto was different. At just 25-years-old, he had a chance to grow, and suddenly a long-term contract wasn’t starting in a pitcher’s 30s, but in the start of his prime.
Anthony DiComo of MLB.com described the starting pitcher as a “free agent unicorn.” Even Mets SP Kodai Senga, as the Athletic reported, “vocalized wanting Yamamoto to Mets management.”
Let the bidding wars begin
While the Mets clearly had interest in Yamamoto, so did many other teams.
The Los Angeles Dodgers were seen as the favorite to land the starting pitcher. However, the Mets cross-town rivals the New York Yankees were expected to also make a major push along with teams like the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants.
Besides having some of the largest teams in baseball all vying for his services, there was another issue: A ticking clock. Yamamoto was posted by the Orix Buffaloes, meaning teams had until early January, or 45 days from when he was posted, to come to a contract agreement.
In early-December 2023, Stearns and Mets Owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto and his family, making it clear they were attempting to lure the star pitcher to queens.
Following the meeting, Sterns described the dinner as a way of trying to convey to Yamamoto on what the Mets “want to become,” according to ESPN.
Later in the month, Yamamoto had dinner at Cohen’s house with Alex Cohen, Pitching Coach Jeremy Hefner, Mendoza, and Sterns, as the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported at the time.
This second meeting was believed to have gone well, according to the Athletic’s Will Sammon, “with the participants enjoying the hospitality and free-flowing conversation leading to a generally good connection.”
Sammon also noted that the Mets were “willing to pay a substantial amount” for Yamamoto, which would turn out to be very, very true.
But in the end, all of Cohen’s wining-and-dining wasn’t enough to sway the pitcher. Yamamoto ultimately signed a 12-year $325 million contract with the team everyone expected him to: The Dodgers.
The Mets actually matched that deal before Yamamoto signed with LA. Despite losing out on the pitcher, Cohen said the organization “tried our hardest” and that he felt “good about our efforts” and that he “left it all on the field.”
“Life goes on,” Cohen reportedly said.
Meanwhile, the Yankees offered Yamamoto $300 million over 10 years, according to Andy Martino of SNY.
The effort the Mets put in also resonated with Schiano.
“They tried, and I give them credit for trying,” Schiano told me during our phone call. “I know a lot of Mets fans poo-pooed that take, because of like ‘oh he never would have signed here anyway.’ I know that, it’s part of the game. But I still wish he would have, I still wanted him to. I’m not going to pretend we had this great of a chance to sign him. We did have a chance to sign him. But, I don’t know, it’s hard to sell cold New York over Los Angeles sometimes.”
What happened next?
Yamamoto would have a very solid rookie season, finishing with a 3.00 ERA and striking out 10.5 hitters per nine innings over 18 regular season games.
Meanwhile, the Mets had perhaps their most magical season in recent memory. They stunned the baseball world by going on an insane run that made them the most fun and meme-able team in baseball.
Grimace, Gay Mets, OMG, Iggy the Mets dog, the Playoff Pumpkin, and other totems became the backdrop for a team that would make it all the way to the NLCS… against Yamamoto and the Dodgers.
The Mets would push the Dodgers to 6 games in the NLCS before ultimately having their magical season to an end. Yamamoto started Game 4, pitching 4.1 innings, giving up two runs, and striking out eight Mets. The Mets lost the game 10-2.
But the idea of Yamamoto at the top of the Mets rotation instead of the Dodgers makes that series a major Mets ‘what-if’ in their history.
“I fully think they would have won the World Series. I’m not even kidding about that,” Schiano said about this possible Mets alternate universe. “I think if you take him off the Dodgers and you give him to us—I know the Dodgers would have approached their trade deadline differently—but if they go in that series and Jack Flaherty is their best pitcher, and Walker Buehler has to make another start, and we already pushed them to six … It’s … easy to concede that fact that [the series] could have switched on a dime if the best pitcher on that team was suddenly on the other team.”
As for what happens moving forward, we will likely ask this “what-if” question more in the future as Yamamoto will be headlining a Dodger’s pitching staff for years to come.
“We’re going to have to beat this team forever and they still have him and we don’t have a pitcher even close to his caliber, as he's become one of the predominant guys. It looks like he’s going to be a Cy Young favorite for forever in the National League,” Schiano said.
Follow James!
I can’t thank James enough for making some time to chat with me. I’ve been a big fan of his for a long time and it was great getting to talk about a more recent Mets “what-if” scenario.
But seriously—go check out:
James and Mark Luino on the Mets’d Up podcast (this is a must-listen for me every time it goes live).
James’ fantasy baseball YouTube channel (which has helped me a lot this year).
And give James a follow on X (his daily game notes are some of the best Mets content on that site).
Thanks James!
❓ Would you have signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
Would you have signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year $325 million contract?
Next newsletter we’ll share the results of the poll! So stay tuned.
Last newsletter’s results: It was unanimous! 100% of Almost A Met readers said they would not have traded P Aaron Heilman or SS Jose Reyes for Lou Piniella to manage the team.
⚾ Mets news you need to know
of has four names that could solve the Mets problems at the trade deadline. (Just Mets/Substack)
takes a look at how often MLB All-Stars actually STAY All-Stars. (Neil Paine/Substack)
Who is the biggest All-Star snub? OF Juan Soto. (MLB Now/X)
Want a blast from the past? Former Met C Travis d’Arnaud took SP Jacob DeGrom deep on Monday night. (MLB/X)
👀 Next time on “Almost A Met”
I know I promised SP Barry Zito this week, but I was excited to get James’ take on Yamamoto. We’ll do Zito next week!
Got a suggestion for who you want us to feature in an upcoming newsletter? Shoot us an email at almostametnewsletter@gmail.com.
As a Dodgers fan, I gotta say… thank you for Yamamoto 😅. But seriously, this was a great read. Loved how you broke down just how real the Mets’ pursuit was, and James’ point about the NLCS flipping if Yamamoto had switched dugouts is honestly fair. That makes the series even crazier in hindsight.